The impact of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions on offline and online grocery shopping: New normal or old habits?

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is changing future trends in retailing and e-commerce immensely. Recent research revealed a considerable increase online grocery shopping (OGS) since the started. In addition, current statistics indicate steady OGS over coming years. Despite this, less known about whether consumers’ behavior evolving to ‘new normal’ or returning ‘old habits’ after restrictions are withdrawn. To address this gap, we operationalize empirically analyze offline purchasing before, during, restrictions. end, use an extensive household panel dataset of 17,766 households reporting their purchases during first lockdown Germany 2020. Our findings on purchase patterns show that while more than 10% consumers avoided brick-and-mortar retail lockdown, almost all them returned afterwards. Looking at patterns, find high volatility for both separate combined patterns. analysis (online offline), reveal stores did not switch (completely) channel. Based our still reach retailers suggest act now retain customers, e.g., by offering competitive benefits stores. operators should urgently customer churn derive measures them. They do seem have succeeded retaining customers keeping loyal channel entire observation period. Even worse, they also failed convince who stayed home due lockdown. fact total 96.75% observed practice shows was 2020 its infancy. However, as forecast further substantial years, results increasingly relevant brand managers, providers beyond.